Correlation between Sunspots and Presidential Elections

The theory is that large amounts of sunspots and the ensuing solar radiation excite the populace into acts of revolution, minor or major.

Comparing solar activity to U.S. presidential elections, there are indeed some correlations. During a solar-activity minimum and even during the upswing in activity, Americans are far more likely to keep the ruling party in the White House (77% for minimum period, 83% for period of increasing).

During a peak in solar activity, however, Americans have been much more eager to replace the political party in the White House (67%, including the replacement of the Articles of Confederation). In the years after a maximum, Americans are just as likely to replace as to keep the ruling party (50%), but even that's much higher than the minimum period.

In summary:
minimum: 77% keep, 23% replace
increase: 83% keep, 17% replace
maximum: 33% keep, 67% replace
decrease: 50% keep, 50% replace

So, where are we now? A minimum, starting upward in a year or so. Which would suggest that the Republicans will maintain control of the White House. It probably means the Democrats will maintain control of Congress, too. We don't rock the boat during a minimum!

The next maximum will be 2010-2013, or so. Which means big things will happen around then, including a Democratic takeover of the presidency. ...Or perhaps a third party.

Election-by-election data:

2000 - maximum - replace Dem
1980 - maximum - replace Dem
1968 - maximum - replace Dem
1960 - maximum - replace Rep
1928 - maximum - keep Rep
1908 - maximum - keep Rep
1884 - maximum - replace Rep
1872 - maximum - keep Rep
1860 - maximum - replace Dem
1848 - maximum - replace Dem
1840 - maximum - replace Dem
1828 - maximum - replace DR
1816* - maximum - keep DR
1804* - maximum - keep DR
1789 - maximum - replace Constitution

1996 - minimum - keep Dem
1984 - minimum - keep Rep
1964 - minimum - keep Dem
1944 - minimum - keep Dem
1924 - minimum - keep Rep
1912 - minimum - replace Rep
1900 - minimum - keep Rep
1876 - minimum - keep Rep
1864 - minimum - keep Rep
1844 - minimum - replace Whig
1824* - minimum - keep DR
1812* - minimum - keep DR
1800* - minimum - replace Fed

2004 - decreasing - keep Rep
1992 - decreasing - replace Rep
1972 - decreasing - keep Rep
1952 - decreasing - replace Dem
1940 - decreasing - keep Dem
1932 - decreasing - replace Rep
1920 - decreasing - replace Dem
1896 - decreasing - replace Dem
1888 - decreasing - replace Dem
1852 - decreasing - replace Whig
1832 - decreasing - keep Dem
1820* - decreasing - keep DR
1808* - decreasing - keep DR
1796* - decreasing - keep Wash

1988 - increasing - keep Rep
1976 - increasing - replace Rep
1956 - increasing - keep Rep
1948 - increasing - keep Dem
1936 - increasing - keep Dem
1916 - increasing - keep Dem
1904 - increasing - keep Rep
1892 - increasing - replace Rep
1880 - increasing - keep Rep
1868 - increasing - keep Rep
1856 - increasing - keep Dem
1836 - increasing - keep Dem

(*period of mild maximums - 1816 was the "Year without Summer." Treating the years 1796-1824 as if they were comparable years from standard cycles, 1804 & 1816 would shift from maximum to increasing, while 1796 & 1808 would shift from decreasing to minimum. This would inflate the difference in keep/replace percentages within sunspot cycles: minimum 80% keep, increase 86% keep, maximum 23% keep, decrease 42% keep.)